While the people have already started making plans for the post-social distancing era, a new study done by the Harvard University researchers says that the social distancing rule will have to be stretched until 2022 if there is no cure or a vaccine.
The study done by the leading researchers of Harvard University was published in the peer-reviewed Journal Science. The study has used the data of the confirmed coronavirus patients of the United States and modeled the potential of the virus for the next 5 years. One of the key points in the study says that the Sars-Cov-2 that has caused the COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to behave like its cousin Sars-Cov-1 and be eradicated with intensive health measures.
According to Stephen M Kissler, a postdoctoral fellow at the TH Chan School of Public health, the Sars-Cov-2 is likely to behave more like influenza that circulates seasonally. As Kissler says, there seem to be clear signs of seasonal patterns in the two beta-coronaviruses peaking in the period of December-January.
Signs of Infection circulating seasonally
Based on the simulations carried out by the team of disease experts and epidemiologists, one-time social distancing measures can restrict the critical case overwhelming the hospitals. Once the restrictions are lifted, the simulation predicts that the infection will resurge and overwhelm the hospitals. Hence, the study suggests that the social distancing measure needs to be followed for at least two-three years. The study says,
“When social distancing is relaxed when virus transmissibility is heightened in the fall, an intense winter outbreak may occur, overlapping with the flu season, and overwhelm hospitals.”
The researchers believe serological tests are the key. The Serological tests the bloom sample of the recovered patients of the COVID-19 and look for the antibodies present in them to fight the coronavirus. They also measure the effectiveness. Currently, there are indications that not all recovery cases have antibodies that have generated a robust immune system.
The scientists also acknowledged the economic and social impact this would create. Hence, they believe that the model needs to be updated with regular intervention. They say that such models need to be prepared to know the trajectory of the crisis and stop it well before it slips out.
Source: Livemint
