Both national parties competing in Karnataka’s Assembly elections, the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress, appear to have come to the conclusion that in order for either of them to win a clear majority, the state’s third force, the regional Janata Dal (Secular) party, must be prevented from winning a significant number of seats.
A hung verdict
Despite the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party’s exaggerated claims about how well it will perform in the upcoming Karnataka assembly elections, numerous pre-election surveys and opinion polls have suggested that a hung assembly is possible. Two networks have predicted a victory for Congress, while the other two have given the BJP the advantage over the opposition party.
According to a pre-election poll conducted by TV9 and C-Voter, the Congress will win 106–116 seats and the BJP 79–89. It is anticipated that the JD(S) will win between 24 and 34 constituencies. The Public TV program “Mood of Karnataka” also gave Congress the advantage with 98-108 seats, falling short of the 113 needed for a majority. According to the poll, the BJP will take 85–95 seats in the state, while the JD(S) will take 28–33.
?️ Karnataka assembly elections
Public TV poll survey – April
Total : 224
BJP : 83-90
Cong : 92-102
JDS : 29-34
oth : 2-4 pic.twitter.com/dDTKQXBXmA— narne kumar06 (@narne_kumar06) April 24, 2023
According to the Asianet Suvarna News Jan Ki Baat poll, the BJP has an advantage over the Congress, winning 98-109 seats to the latter’s 89-97. And the NewsFirst-Matrize poll says that the BJP was expected to win 96–106 seats, while the Congress was expected to take home 84–94 seats and the JD(S) to take home 29–34.
News 1st Matrize Karnataka Opinion Poll:
BJP : 96-106
INC : 84-94
JDS : 29-34
OTH : 2-7BJP with others will retain Karnataka as per the survey of a credible agency?. Give your comments. Follow our handle for more news.
Region Wise:
Kittur / Bombay Karnataka: BJP 28-33, INC…— Times Algebra (@TimesAlgebraIND) April 25, 2023
Meanwhile, Vistara News shows a hung parliament by giving the BJP 88–93 seats, the Congress 84–90, and the JD(S) 23–26. There are 27–30 seats where the outcome is undetermined, according to the survey. According to the South First-People’s Pulse pre-election poll, Congress will have 98 seats, with a possible range of 95 to 105. The JD(S) is expected to win 27 seats, while the BJP is predicted to win 92 seats (90-100 seat range).
Will Kumaraswamy emerge as the Kingmaker?
JD(S) will have the chance to re-emerge as the Kingmaker to form the government as it did in 2018 if predictions about the hung verdict in the Karnataka elections prove to be accurate. Under the leadership of HD Kumaraswamy, JD(S) is currently making a lot of effort to shed the reputation of being a “family party.”
However, some political experts and party members are skeptical that JD(S) will thrive in achieving this objective. The party received 58 seats in the 2004 assembly elections, which was its best result to date. By winning 40 seats, the party achieved its second-best performance in 2013.
The Third Party gimmick
Both national parties contesting in Karnataka’s Assembly elections, the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress, seem to have come to the decision that in order for either of them to win a clear majority, the state’s third force, the regional Janata Dal (Secular) party, must be prevented from winning a significant number of seats.
Amit Shah, the union home minister, urged supporters to help the BJP win as many seats in the area as possible at a rally this past weekend in Belagavi in order to guarantee the party a resounding victory.
“On the one hand, there is a party that wants to win 25 to 30 seats and ride on the Congress cart to run the government and achieve dynastic politics that disrespects the people of Karnataka – that’s the JDS,” Shah said.
“The Congress and JDS look like two different parties but I want to tell the people of Karnataka that every vote cast for the JDS will ultimately go to the Congress. It would only help the Congress achieve victory,” he added while calling for BJP wins in at least 16 of the 18 seats in the district.
State Congress president D K Shivakumar, who is a Vokkaliga, also pleaded with Mandya voters to shift their loyalty to Congress in the 2023 polls. “We stood in support of the JDS last time in order to prevent a communal party (the BJP) from coming to power. But he (Kumaraswamy) could not hold on to power. I am asking you as your son. I am asking you as the son of Doddalahalli Kempegowda. I am asking you as the president of the Congress. I am asking you by falling at your feet,” Shivakumar said. Quoted Indian Express.
Previously, former Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah was heard asking voters in the Mandya region, “The JDS will not come to power. Kumaranna (JDS leader H D Kumaraswamy) keeps saying he will get 123. When we were all together we could win only 58 seats. They later fell to 29. If they win 20 to 22 seats it will be too much. Do you want to trust them?”
The JDS reacted angrily to the Congress and Siddaramaiah’s calls for the Mandya voters to switch their allegiance to the Congress. The JDS is playing it safe and hopes to win just enough seats to force the BJP or the Congress into a coalition with it.
“They are saying that JDS will not come to power and so people should not vote for us. The factionalism in the Congress will not allow the party to come to power. Their leaders are not able to look into the faces of each other. They have no capability to control their own party and they are talking about my party,” Kumaraswamy said.
