With the coronavirus outbreak casting a shadow on the global economy, pundits estimate that India could see close to 136 million jobs being lost during the outbreak. Post the outbreak, companies might lay off millions of workers, says a report.
India is in the middle of a nationwide lockdown. While essential services carry on, the government has asked the private sector to provide work from home opportunities to its employees and also requested them to not waive off their salaries in the crucial period. Even before the lockdown, the airline industry and the tourism industry were the first to be hit due to the global pandemic. The Taj Mahal which witnessed 10 million tourists and since the beginning of 2020, there has hardly been any influx of tourists.
136 Million Jobs in Non-Agricultural Sector to be Hit
The worst-hit are the ones who are not on a payroll. CII, an industry body, said that close 20 million jobs will be lost as many in the tourism and hospitality industry could go sick. The service industries, manufacturing industries, and the non-manufacturing industries aren’t any different as falling demand and supply could make it tougher for newer job creation.
Based on data of the National Sample Survey (NSS) and Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), there are close to 136 million non-agricultural jobs at risk. This includes people working in nano business, small businesses, self-employed and those who don’t have a written contract.
In order to absorb the people moving into the working-age population, India needs to create at least 10 million jobs every year. The Adecco Group India, a staffing company, predicts that 9 million jobs can be reduced across manufacturing industries like textile, capital goods, cement, food products, metals, plastics, rubber, and electronics.
UN warns of Global Recession but says India is an Exception
The world economy is likely to go into recession as soon as it comes out of the pandemic. However, the United Nations says that India is likely an exception. According to an analysis conducted by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the shock of COVID-19 could put behind two-thirds of the population of the developed countries into unemployment. The analysis also predicted a minimum loss of USD 2 trillion to USD 3 trillion in the coming two years.
However, in the report, UNCTAD said that the global recession might have a likely exception of China and a possible exception of India but the report didn’t elaborate on the claim.