According to a new United States report, the novel coronavirus will stay for around for at least 18-24 months. The report also projected that the virus will start to decline only after two-thirds of the population is affected taking into account the ‘her immunity’ factor.
The report comes a day after President Donald Trump displayed his intentions to seek reparations of 1 trillion dollars from Beijing reiterating his belief that the novel coronavirus originated in the laboratory of Wuhan. The report prepared by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) is based on the study of previous pandemics that had plagued the world.
Three Different Scenarios of COVID-19
The report presents three possibilities. All three of them don’t present a possibility of an immediate fizzling out of the virus. The first scenario predicts that the virus will undergo several peaks and downslides before trembling out in 2021. The peaks of the virus depend on the geographical location and the measures taken by the local administration. The report also mentioned that the relaxation of the restrictions in this scenario should be staggered through a period of 1-2 years.
The second scenario is deemed to be the worst-case scenario as it predicts that the outbreak will be hit by another massive peak during winter that is likely to echo the Spanish flu of 1918-19. Post that, smaller peaks will be persistent and finally fizzles out depending on the lockdown measures. The third scenario, the best-case scenario, says that the pandemic will gradually fade out having smaller and smaller peaks until 2022.
However, the report categorically notes that irrespective of the scenario, the world must be cautious and prepared for the next 18-24 months. The report also urged the United States government to be transparent with the public in informing them about the longevity of the pandemic and to prepare them for the worst-case scenario. Even as the report came, many states in the United States are favoring the relaxations of the lockdown and even ending the social distancing norm. In some places, the relaxation of lockdown has spiked the number of coronavirus cases.
Source: The Times of India
