Exit polls have given a clear majority to Narendra Modi led BJP Government. However, past references indicate that such predictions went completely wrong. The most recent example is that of the US elections 2016 where exit polls predicted a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton.
But all the calculations of the pundits went wrong with the voters favoring Donald Trump who won the elections with a huge margin.
In 2004, Indian exit polls predicted a win for Vajpayee led NDA, but results proved wrong and Manmohan Singh became prime minister for the first time. Also in 2009, exit polls predicted chances of LK Advani led NDA coming to power but results retained Manmohan Singh Government.
Therefore the very basic credibility of exit polls predictions is questionable. That is why leaders like Chandrababu Naidu has already started touring all over India, meeting regional party leaders on the possibility of forming a Non-BJP led government in the center.
Taking a cue from this, we have come up with 5 possibilities after election results are declared on May 23:
1. Narendra Modi will become Prime Minister with NDA getting a majority
Going with popularity and mood of the nation, and considering the rate at which the first-time voters voted this time, it appears that the chances of Modi becoming PM are very bright. If BJP secures anywhere between 220+ seats whereas other NDA parties get 50+ seats, Modi can easily become PM.
This option is good for the country as PM continuing for 10 consecutive years will help him complete all the projects he initiated. That’s why developed countries like the USA believe in giving 2 chances for one president.
2. Nitin Gadkari will become Prime Minister with BJP securing less than 160-200 seats.
With Nitin Gadkari being the hot favorite for RSS leaders, he could be picked for PM if BJP secures less than 200 seats. In this case, other NDA parties will get a larger say. The current scenario indicates that the other NDA parties are in favor of stopping Modi from growing further.
That is why they may back Nitin Gadkari as PM pick. Speculations are adrift that Nitin Gadkari has already started making secret meetings with RSS to chalk out plans, as they strongly feel that Modi may sideline RSS leaders if he comes to power again. Analysts believe this to be a golden chance for Nitin Gadkari if the results are similar to 2004.
3. Dark Horse like Mallikarjun Kharge similar to Manmohan Singh may become the first choice for prime minister’s post
Analysts believe this is the third most potential outcome if UPA gets 180+ seats and BJP gets less than 180 seats. In that case, all regional parties may back UPA with non-Gandhi as PM pick similar to the way Manmohan Singh emerged as the dark horse in 2004.
The Regional parties will do everything possible to pick up a weak prime minister candidate, so as to control the Government remotely. Sonia Gandhi may agree to this formula as she definitely wants to keep BJP out of power.
This time, Karnataka MP, Mallikarjun Kharge can be such a pick as he shares a cordial relationship with regional leaders and he can listen to Gandhi’s instructions.
4. Rahul Gandhi becoming Prime Minister with UPA securing 180-200 seats and taking support from a few regional parties
Going with 2004, Vajpayee was as popular as Modi today, but UPA secured a simple majority then which was a big surprise for Congress president Sonia Gandhi herself. If this result repeats this time, say, 200+ seats for Congress alone, Rahul has the chance to become PM.
But analysts believe that such chances are very remote as UPA alone getting 200+ seats looks far from reality. Congress has lost its grip in big states like Andra Pradesh, UP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, and a few northeastern states.
5. Any other regional leaders getting a front seat like Mamata Banerjee, Chandra Babu Naidu, Mayavati, Chandrashekar Rao, or more acceptable leaders like HD Deve Gowda
If UPA gets 150+ seats with regional parties getting 150+ seats, Congress can well agree to support any regional leaders as PM pick just to keep BJP away. This could be 1996 case, where, H D Deve Gowda came out as surprise PM pick.
This time we have leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Chandra Babu Naidu, Mayavati, Chandra Shekar Rao, etc. But if this happens, the stability of the government will always be at stake. Only states will get benefits with national interest taking a backseat.