India’s ranking is now among a group of 15 high-risk countries where relaxing lockdowns could lead to a spike in new infections, creating a situation which, “in the extreme case”, could lead to stringent curbs being re-imposed, an analysis by securities research firm Nomura has said.
At a point where the count of coronavirus cases in the country is beyond 2 lakhs, the relaxation of lockdown doesn’t seem to be a suitable idea, as the result will show an increasing number of positive cases every day. Public places such as railways, airports, malls, and big markets are the epitome of community spread, and extreme movements in such areas will undoubtedly create havoc in the country in the near future.
“Our visual tool has yielded a mixed bag of results: 17 countries are on track with respect to reopening economies with no sign of the second wave; 13 countries showing some tentative warning signs, and 15 countries in the danger zone of being most at risk of a second wave,” the report said.
According to the analysis, lifting lockdowns will lead to either of two potential scenarios. “In the first (good) scenario, a country or US state experiences a quick recovery in people’s mobility. Lockdown measures become relaxed, and businesses resume operations with minimal increases in the number of new daily cases, resulting in ease in public fear and a further increase in people’s mobility. As the number of new cases declines, a positive feedback loop kicks in,” the analysis said.
“On the other hand, the second (bad) scenario is characterized by a much ‘flatter’ curve. The reopening of the economy is associated with an acceleration in the number of new daily infections, growing public fear and ceasing people mobility; in extreme cases, lockdowns would be reimposed,” it added.
The analysis divides the 45 countries into three groups: those ‘on track’, facing ‘warning signs’, or are in the ‘danger zone’. India falls in the danger zone, along with several other low-to-middle income countries such as Indonesia, Chile, and Pakistan. Sweden, Singapore, South Africa, and Canada fall under the advanced economies.
There is no denial in the fact that the economy of India has suffered a lot in the fast 4 months and re-opening of public places is just a measure to get it back on the track. However, giving a total relaxation in public places such as Malls, restaurants, and markets may show a rise in Corona cases than the economy.