According to a modeling exercise by the Times Network in partnership with global consulting firm Protiviti, the novel coronavirus pandemic in the country could peak in the middle of the month of May and gradually fade out afterward.
The report by the Times network that is titled ‘Times Fact India Outbreak Report’ has examined three different possibilities of the pandemic and based on that has predicted that the country could see the number of confirmed cases spiking up to 75,000 by the 22nd of May.
The three models estimate the progression of the coronavirus pandemic in three different conditions. For each condition, the report has a model of progression. Based on three possibilities, the report has provided insights into how the government and the health sector should tackle the crisis.
Prediction Based on Three Different Models
The three models are namely the percentage model, the time series model and the susceptible exposed infected recovered model. The percentage model has made the observation on the trends in Italy and the United States and has applied it to the Indian trajectory. The time series model has considered the data across different time periods in China and South Korea and adapts the same to the Indian data that is available as of yet. The susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model has its basis on the estimation of the rate of reproduction of the virus. The reproduction rate of the virus is the average number of people each positive person affects.
Even as the Indian Council of Medical Research saying that India has fared well in containing the spread after the Tablighi outbreak, the cases in the country continue to shock people. The total reported cases of the novel coronavirus has crossed the 20,000 mark.
As on the afternoon of 22nd April, India has suffered 652 deaths due to COVID-19. Over 25 percent of the cases have been reported from the state of Maharashtra with 5,000 plus cases. Seven states and Union Territories have crossed the 1,000 figure. Gujarat and Delhi around 2,000 odd cases are behind Maharashtra. The only silver lining for India is that the number of recoveries has been 4,000.
Source: The Times of India
